What Will Happen to Fashion If the World Misses Its Climate Targets?

As we approach the end of 2024, alarming new reports highlight the fashion industry’s precarious position in the context of climate change. Just this year, the world reached a critical milestone — for the first time, it breached 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels. The implications of exceeding this threshold are profound, particularly for an industry heavily reliant on global supply chains and consumer behavior prone to rapid changes.

The 1.5-degree target was established during the monumental Paris Agreement negotiations in 2015. Many countries agreed to pursue measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as every fraction of a degree of temperature rise increases the likelihood of catastrophic climate events. However, recent projections indicate that under current conditions, the Earth’s temperature could rise between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees Celsius this century. Such scenarios could lead to severe economic and humanitarian crises worldwide.

This year has shown an array of extreme weather patterns, including deadly heatwaves, unprecedented storms, and flooding, affecting various industries. The fashion sector, in particular, stands to face substantial risks. Many of its manufacturing hubs are located in countries vulnerable to climate change, like Bangladesh and Vietnam. For instance, the floods in Pakistan last year destroyed about 40% of the cotton crop, drastically impacting global supply chains.

The escalating climate crisis is intertwined with shifting consumer habits. As extreme weather conditions disrupt daily life, individuals often alter their purchasing decisions regarding clothing, opting for companies perceived as eco-conscious or sustainable. The costs to the industry are projected to reach billions in losses by the end of the decade if current trends continue. Despite this looming threat, many fashion executives continue to prioritize short-term profits over the long-term sustainability of their businesses.

A significant challenge the industry faces is the inherent conflict between its business model and sustainability. The traditional fashion business thrives on producing more goods, yet this growth contradicts the need to reduce overall emissions. Experts emphasize that without reevaluating how fashion companies operate, the detrimental impacts on the environment will only intensify.

Air conditioning, a common response to rising temperatures in factories, becomes a double-edged sword; essential for maintaining operations but also highly carbon-intensive. The costs associated with cooling facilities effectively create a financial barrier for many organizations aiming to implement greener practices. As Betsy Blaisdell from Guidehouse points out, “Everybody is still producing more stuff. That is always the elephant in the room.”

The path to achieving true sustainability is fraught with obstacles. Many companies have not accurately gauged their exposure to climate risk or have failed to set realistic targets for emissions reductions. While advancements in technology offer possible solutions, significant investments are necessary, which can be daunting for small to medium-sized enterprises operating on thin margins.

Moreover, the political landscape complicates the issue. The re-election of populist leaders who oppose joining or upholding international climate agreements adds uncertainty to global cooperation. As negotiations at the COP climate talks unfold, the world watches closely to see whether more manageable commitments can be made to address emissions.

Should countries fail in their commitments, the ramifications for the fashion industry could be dire. The consequences of rising temperatures extend beyond production interruptions; they can lead to a realignment of consumer priorities, with buyers increasingly seeking brands that align with their values regarding sustainability.

In light of these circumstances, the onus is upon fashion leaders to actively redefine their operations. As indicated by Vidhura Ralapanawe, a climate scientist who focuses on sustainability, “We still need to run to net zero even faster.” This commitment must translate across every tier of the fashion supply chain, fostering a shift from a volume-driven model to one that prioritizes environmental stewardship and community engagement.

The stakes are high, but opportunities for innovation abound. Fashion brands, retailers, and stakeholders that recognize and anticipate change can navigate the path towards sustainability successfully. Collaboration among industry players, consumers, and governments can lay the groundwork for a more resilient fashion ecosystem, capable of thriving in an increasingly climate-changed world.

As we look to the future, the fashion industry’s capacity to adapt will determine not only its growth potential but also its fundamental role in shaping a sustainable future.

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