US retail sales, excluding the impact of a cyberattack on auto dealerships, rose in June by the most in three months, signaling a rebound in consumer confidence. Retail purchases less motor vehicles climbed 0.4 percent last month following an upwardly-revised 0.1 percent increase in May. Overall retail sales remained flat, hindered by a 2 percent drop in auto dealer receipts, figures unadjusted for inflation reveal.
This rise deviates from recent trends of slowing consumption due to high interest rates and a cooler labor market. It suggests the economy remains resilient as the Federal Reserve nears potential rate cuts. “Consumption and economic activity have slowed significantly in 2024. However, conditions are far from recessionary,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, pointing to data supporting a relaxed monetary policy stance.
Out of the 13 categories tracked by the Commerce Department, only three registered declines, including gasoline sales due to lower prices. Excluding gas stations and auto dealers, retail sales surged 0.8 percent, the most since early 2023. Non-store retailers saw their biggest gains in three months, with health and personal care stores and building material outlets experiencing notable increases.
Thousands of dealerships faced significant hurdles during their end-of-quarter sales due to a mid-June cyberattack on CDK Global. AutoNation Inc. indicated that the incident had a substantial impact on their second-quarter earnings, although deferred sales are expected to pick up in July.
So-called control-group sales, a key metric for GDP calculations excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and gas stations, advanced 0.9 percent in June, matching the largest increase since April 2023.
While retail sales data reflects mainly goods purchases, which make up a smaller portion of consumer spending, it remains a vital economic indicator. Upcoming personal consumption expenditures data will offer more insight into inflation-adjusted spending on both goods and services.